Talking yesterday with negotiators, journalists and business leaders at Copenhagen as we approach the final furlong here in Copenhagen I would say the mood is mixed.

There is a lot of frustration and to some extent disappointment. Targets seem to be slipping south, ranging from developed world emissions to funding commitments; formal and informal discussions are getting fraught with talks breaking down regularly and the resignation today of the President of COP15 to focus solely on ministerial engagement; and a sense that chances of Copenhagen becoming the seminal milestone in history on climate change are slipping away.

(Add to all this the "challenging" -- to say the least -- logistics around the conference venue itself, the now-infamous Bella Center, unless of course you are a delegate that likes the "refreshing" Siberian breeze for 9 hours, which was what a fellow panelist at yesterday's International Emissions Trading conference suffered on Monday!)
 
I think that pessimism is too early. Although predictions are a dangerous business -- and here I'm reminded of the famous Chinese proverb that "he who predicts the future using a crystal ball often ends up eating glass" -- I think we may well see a qualified political agreement come out and some important wins in areas like deforestation through the REDD+ framework.

Why am I more optimistic? Partly because I didn't expect Copenhagen to live up to the billing it has been given in many corners. Partly because although we are probably 48 hours before the final agreement and statements, most probably in the early hours of Saturday morning, we are moving into a very different phase of COP15.
 
Today the "big beasts" arrive at the largest gathering of presidents, prime ministers and heads of state ever to be in one place at one time to discuss a global pathway towards a low carbon economy.

I hope and believe that this will raise the debate well above some of the technical level and I'm not sure 130 of the world's most powerful men and women will want to jet away without a deal that recognizes their leadership.
 
Nevertheless, if we are going to reach something that looks like success there are five remaining 'Runners and Riders' that will need to be resolved: